Many teams in the MIAC feature strong rushing attacks and talented backfields. St. John’s running back Sam Sura surpassed 1,000 career rushing yards earlier this season; Hamline running back Austin Duncan led the MIAC in rushing yards last year with 1,460; and St. Thomas features a stable of running backs in Jack Kaiser, Nick Waldvogel and Brenton Braddock, that lead its attack.

Despite many talented ball carriers around the conference, a quintet of signal callers will play an even larger part in the quest for MIAC dominance. I know it’s a theory that’s been repeated more times than Brett Favre’s name during a John Madden-led broadcast, but quarterbacks will ultimately decide the fate of the teams battling for MIAC supremacy.

Bethel coach Steve Johnson’s team has become something of a dynasty, advancing to the NCAA Division-III playoffs in eight of the last 12 seasons. They feature the conference’s reigning MVP in quarterback Erik Peterson, who threw for 3,034 yard and 24 touchdowns last season. Peterson would have been the logical preseason choice to repeat as MIAC MVP for a consistently strong No. 15-ranked Royals team (1-1 overall, 1-0 MIAC). A fellow quarterback has stolen the spotlight early this season, though.

Peterson’s quest for a repeat has been overshadowed by the statistical wizardry of Gustavus Adolphus College quarterback Mitch Hendricks. Hendricks has already surpassed 1,000 passing yards in three games this year and has tossed 13 touchdowns. If Hendricks continues his torrid pace, not only would he be the runaway favorite to capture the MVP, the Gusties (3-0 overall, 1-0 MIAC) would also have a strong chance of challenging for the conference title. Despite a fast start, Gustavus’ last four games of the season are against St. John’s, Bethel, Concordia and St. Thomas. The Gusties’ early-season success may be for naught if they can’t survive their final four games.

No. 25-ranked Concordia-Moorhead (3-0 overall, 1-0 MIAC) and its quarterback Griffin Neal jumped into the national ranking and will be yet another team that could potentially contend for the MIAC title. Neal needs just over 1,300 passing yards this season to surpass 5,000 in his career and remains a veteran leader on a very tough and well-coached Cobbers team. Concordia clawed its way to a 23-14 win against St. John’s in Collegeville, Minn. in Week 3 – no small feat for any MIAC team this season. The Cobbers, Tommies and Gusties will likely be fighting to secure a playoff spot at season’s end, making for pivotal matchups in Weeks 10 and 11.

Barring a record-setting season by Hendricks, my personal choice for the Jim Christopherson Award is Augsburg (2-1 overall, 1-0 MIAC) quarterback Ayrton Scott. A dual-threat quarterback in every sense of the word, Scott’s sophomore campaign last year was one for the ages. Scott not only threw for 2,767 yards and 25 touchdowns, he also ran for 647 yards and 15 touchdowns. If my St. Thomas math is correct (and thanks to the fabulous instructors at this fine institution, it is) Scott accounted for 40 touchdowns and over 3,400 yards of total offense. Keep in mind that those statistics came when the Auggies’ quarterback was just a sophomore, and Scott looks even better in the early going this season. He has thrown for more than 700 yards and 7 touchdowns so far and has rushed for 292 to go along with 5 touchdowns on the ground. As a whole, this scrappy Augsburg team is a sleeper that could very well be near the top of the standings at year’s end. Given the status of the top four teams in the conference though, that may be unlikely.

That brings me to St. Thomas quarterback Matt O’Connell, perhaps the most important of the quarterback quintet. The No. 10-ranked Tommies (2-0 overall) are the highest-ranked MIAC team and will play their first conference game Saturday against St. John’s. While the Tommie offense may not currently look like the well-oiled machine coach Glenn Caruso would like it to be, O’Connell has displayed great mobility and running ability while throwing enough to keep the offense balanced. St. Thomas is in a good position going into the Tommie-Johnnie game and has another strong team with numerous talented players. The defense has looked dominant at times – especially against the run – and it will be up to O’Connell to continue to take advantage of the talent on the St. Thomas offense.

Speaking of the Tommie-Johnnie game, the Johnnies can never be counted out in the MIAC conference. St. John’s finished fourth in the conference last year but returns Sura, wide receiver Josh Bungum and a host of talent on the defensive side of the ball.

If the Tommies win the upcoming Tommie-Johnnie game Saturday, I anticipate the battle for the MIAC title will be a four-horse race between St. Thomas, Bethel, Gustavus and Concordia.

Bethel was the lone MIAC team to make the NCAA Division-III Playoffs last season and its one loss this year so far was to No. 9-ranked Wartburg (Iowa). Gustavus and Concordia are both undefeated, and while only Concordia is ranked, both teams have looked impressive this year. Gustavus has scored more than 40 points in each of its three wins, and Concordia has scored 93 total points in the first three weeks of the season.

Already having lost a game earlier in the season, I can’t imagine the Royals dropping more than one of their remaining games. The question is, to whom will they lose? In my mind one game on the schedule is a potential loss for Bethel: Oct. 25 against the St. Thomas. Assuming the team beats St. John’s, St. Thomas could very well be 6-0 heading into its matchup with Bethel. But the game is at Bethel, and I think home field advantage will be just enough to give Bethel the win.

Assuming the Royals win the remainder of their games, that would place Bethel at 9-1 on the year.

If my predictions turn out to be true, St. Thomas would be 6-1 heading into the last three weeks of the season with games against Concordia, Carleton and Gustavus. I don’t think the Tommies are quite as talented as previous seasons, so it is not beyond the pale to suggest that they could lose to Gustavus in the last week of the season. That would place the Tommies at 8-2, a notch below the Royals.

St. Thomas and Bethel’s records would mean they both would have beaten Concordia. Again assuming that the Cobbers win the rest of their games, that leaves them with an 8-2 mark as well. I don’t think the Cobbers will finish with just two losses however. I see Concordia falling to Gustavus in its last game of the year, leaving them with a 7-3 record.

That leaves Gustavus. Riding the hot hand of their quarterback, I think the Gusties will lose to Bethel Nov. 1 but win the rest of their games. That would leave the team 9-1 and tied for first place in the conference with Bethel; and thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker, the Royals would take the conference title.

Don’t feel bad about my predictions though, Tommie fans. After all, I’m just some yam head giving my opinions about the MIAC season. Predictions mean nothing in the end, and anything can happen. The real battle for the MIAC title will be fought between the lines of the gridiron.

Tom Pitzen can be reached at pitz2014@stthomas.edu.